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FiveThirtyEight Unveils General Election Forecast


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To read Nate Silver’s introductory article:

After a tumultuous primary election, today FiveThirtyEight is launching its biggest political project of the year: The 2016 General Election Forecast, based on Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver’s well-known model, which first gained national attention in 2008 when it correctly predicted the results of the presidential election in 49 of 50 states, along with all 35 U.S. Senate races.

Its initial findings, which were first revealed today on Good Morning America, give Hillary Clinton a 80.6 percent chance of winning the election and Donald Trump 19.3 percent, putting her ahead in both the Electoral College and the popular vote

The forecast uses a model similar to the one FiveThirtyEight created when it successfully predicted the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Using a series of interactive graphics, this year’s forecast will be continually updated through the election to show each candidate’s chances of winning, who is ahead in the popular vote and the Electoral College, and a detailed look at the polls in each state.

It will also show the chances for a series of scenarios, like an Electoral College tie, a landslide, or the possibility of winning the popular vote but losing the election.

The data will be accompanied by stories that will appear regularly on the site from Silver and other members of the political team, including Harry EntenClare MaloneFarai Chideya and David Wasserman. Additionally, FiveThirtyEight will continue to provide in-depth coverage of all issues affecting the 2016 Presidential Election through its FiveThirtyEight Elections podcast.

FiveThirtyEight, which launched as an ESPN entity in 2014, is a data journalism organization delivering compelling stories across the verticals of politics, economy, science, life and sports. The site was founded by award-winning author and statistician Nate Silver. Since its debut at ESPN, FiveThirtyEight has built a team with a broad set of skills and experiences in order to apply statistical analysis, data visualization, and data-literate reporting to topics in the news and in everyday life.


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Ana Livia Coelho